First, the domestic yarn price fell the highest in the year, the period price fell below the 20,000 integer mark

This week, domestic yarn futures and spot prices fell the most in the year. National Cotton Market Monitoring System yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 20427 yuan / ton, down 244 yuan / ton from last week, yarn cotton spread 8212 yuan / ton, an increase of 166 yuan / ton from last week; cotton yarn futures main settlement average price fell It broke through the 20,000 yuan mark to 19,117 yuan / ton, down 1143 yuan / ton from last week, lower than the spot price of 1,310 yuan / ton, and the price difference narrowed by 899 yuan / ton from last week.

It is understood that after textile companies resume work and production, insufficient orders have become the biggest problem restricting business operations, and many companies have an increasing trend in the inventory of finished products. Affected by the sharp fall in cotton prices, textile companies continued to lower their quotations by 800-1000 yuan / ton this week after cutting their cotton yarn prices by 500 yuan / ton last week, but no actual transactions occurred after the two price adjustments.

Second, the international cotton yarn price continued its downward trend, and the decline increased.

(1) 32 cotton yarns

This week, the average delivery price of Indian ports was 20,554 yuan / ton, down by 76 yuan / ton from last week. The spread between China and India [1] [1] decreased by 168 yuan / ton to -127 yuan / ton from last week; The price was 20190 yuan / ton, down 56 yuan / ton from last week. The price difference between China and Vietnam narrowed by 188 yuan / ton to 237 yuan / ton from last week.

(Two) 21 cotton yarns

This week, the average pick-up price of Indian ports was 19674 yuan / ton, down 52 yuan / ton from last week. The spread between China and India expanded by 10 yuan / ton to 420 yuan / ton from last week; the average pickup price of Pakistan ports was 19264 yuan / ton, Last week, it fell by 52 yuan / ton, and the price difference between China and Pakistan increased by 10 yuan / ton to 830 yuan / ton from last week.

(Three) 10 air spinning

This week, the average pickup price of Indian ports was 13,296 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton from last week, and the spread between China and India narrowed 44 yuan / ton to -130 yuan / ton from last week.

According to feedback from cotton yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, in the past week, the prices of imported yarns continued to decline, and the prices of carded yarns and OE yarns in India, Vietnam, Pakistan and other places dropped slightly more than that of high-combed yarns (FOB, CNF prices). ),main reason:

1. The prices of ICE futures and Zheng cotton futures have fallen sharply. The current cotton quotations of foreign yarn mills are significantly lower than the contract prices in the previous period. No agreement between buyers and sellers leads to an increase in defaults;

2. The global spread of the epidemic has affected transportation and trade to varying degrees, and the production, shipment and delivery of cotton yarn have been delayed;

3. The resumption and production of small and medium-sized weaving and clothing companies were lower than expected. Many light textile markets resumed production but did not resume production. They are still in a semi-closed state, coupled with the spread of the epidemic and the impact of the plunge in crude oil prices, the uncertainty of demand for imported yarn increase;

4. According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, from March 13-20, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar fell below the 7 yuan round mark. The depreciation of RMB is expected to increase, and the cost of imported cotton yarn will rise.

Third, polyester short, sticky short prices remain unchanged

Affected by the plunge in crude oil prices, the prices of polyester staples remained weak. This week, the national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester staple) average price of 6028 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton from last week, cotton and polyester price gap narrowed 160 yuan / ton to 6187 last week RMB / ton; the average price of CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) was 9,300 yuan / ton, down by 60 yuan / ton from last week, and the cotton viscose price gap was reduced by 350 yuan / ton to 2915 yuan / ton from last week.

24. Outlook

一 (I) The global epidemic is accelerating and the number of cancellations and cancellations of foreign orders has increased

At present, 43 countries around the world have declared an emergency in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the total number of diagnoses abroad has exceeded 250,000. Although domestic cotton textiles and clothing companies have resumed work and resumed quickly since mid-to-late February, due to the outbreak in the Middle East, Europe, and the United States, more and more countries have begun to block countries, suspend shipping, and suspend shipping. The impact was greater, and the number of cancellations and cancellations of textile companies' foreign orders increased.

二 (II) Export data in the next few months is not optimistic

疊加 The Chinese New Year's factors combined with the impact of the epidemic have led to unsatisfactory export data in the first two months of 2020. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to February 2020, China's textile and apparel export value was US $ 29.835 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was US $ 13.737 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%; the export value of apparel (including apparel and clothing accessories) was US $ 16.06 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%. With the spread of overseas epidemics accelerating, more and more countries have begun to block borders to fight the epidemic. It is expected that export data in recent months will remain difficult to be optimistic.

(3) Worries about economic slowdown and rising consumer sentiment may be affected

Epidemics abroad are raging, and more and more countries are shutting down physical stores. For example, Sao Paulo in Brazil closed all retail stores until April 5. GAP Group closed all its stores in North America from March 19 and Macy's temporarily closed. Stores By the end of March, Microsoft closed global retail stores, Apple closed retail stores other than China, and even luxury giants including Chanel and Hermes also announced that they would close factories in France, Switzerland and Italy in the next two weeks. These include high fashion, ready-to-wear, high jewellery and jewelry.

The epidemic has affected European manufacturing, and the impact on the industrial chain is gradually emerging. Although many large companies have diversified supply chains, they can still balance production through factories in other countries to meet demand for orders, but concerns about the slowdown in finance and the economy have gradually increased, and fears that the economic downturn will affect global consumer sentiment.

(4) The production and sales rate of yarn and cloth is the lowest in the past 3 years. The inventory discount days are the highest in the past 3 years.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in early March 2020, the number of days of yarn and cloth inventory discounts decreased slightly from the previous month, but still the highest point in 2018. Compared with the production and sales of yarn and cloth in the past three years from January to March, the current production and sales rate of yarn and cloth is the lowest in the past three years, and the number of days of inventory folding is the highest in the past three years (see the table below).

(5) Small and medium-sized enterprises are facing a "big test" to prevent the "tidal wave" and "unemployment wave"

At present, many domestic textile companies report that their orders are about to be completed and they are facing the risk of "breaking grain." Even some companies have resumed work soon and will continue to take holidays or lay off workers. In order not to stop, some enterprises are preparing to produce standard products to facilitate futures delivery. It can be seen that the life of textile enterprises is not good, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises will face a "big test", we should be more vigilant to prevent the "crash of closure" and "a wave of unemployment".

At present, the negative impact of the global epidemic has not yet fully manifested, but it has become the consensus in the industry that the epidemic will reduce global cotton consumption. In the later period, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the impact of the epidemic development on the industrial chain.

[1] The price difference in the text is the difference between the price of the middle yarn and the price of the outer yarn.